From historical studies, it has become
obvious that every 100 years gives birth to a new industrial revolution and
each industrial revolution comes with its own changes and peculiarities to the
workplace structure, work patterns with different levels of impact on employee’s
health, safety and wellbeing. From the year 1700 to the year 2000, we all
experienced 3 industrial revolutions that came with their own changes in the
world of work but the year 2000 – 2100 which has been referred to as the 4th
Industrial Revolution has been characterized with so much discussions based on the
use of technology, robotic science, artificial intelligence, cyber operations
and many more. This is the new collective concern.
The key drivers of the future of work
are:
·
Technology
·
Globalization
·
Inequality
·
Climate
Change
These will bring forth a big change in
the global dynamics of work processes and techniques which will affect the worker,
the work and the workplace. The first thing within the cycle of change in the
new world work-order will be characterized with vulnerability of certain kinds
of jobs, mostly routine jobs that are not cognitive based. According to the
survey of Deloitte with MIT, “70% of business leaders believe they need a new
mix of talents and skills in the future of work”. So, the earlier we all realize
the need to acquire new sets of skills, competencies and qualifications, the
better our copping capabilities within the new work space, this is called “Future
Proofing” your job. According to Fray and Osborne of Oxford Martin School, “Technology
and workplace automation will bring 57% of jobs globally under high level of
vulnerability”, what this means is that any job that can be automated may have
no place for a human being but their robot counterparts, in the words of
Richard Baldwin, “there will be a shift of job from human hands to human heads”.
Surprisingly, data shows that over the past 10 years, there has been relatively
very little growth in a number of routine jobs when compared to the non-routine
jobs, these jobs might all be replaced with technology in the future of work.
Technology will take away the word “Decency”
from decent jobs, outsourcing without a proper employment contract with good
coverage and social protection will characterize this new work age. Another item
that will be so evident is the presence of “Free Agent Jobs” working multiple jobs
for lower pay and working beyond the traditional retirement age. It has been
estimated that by 2020, workers from their teens to their 70s or beyond maybe
working side by side, dramatically altering the social fabrics of workplace
traditional approach. This brings to mind the issue of change in demography and
ageing workforce. In Europe today, 35% of those who go to work are neither
employees nor work full time, they all mostly free agents on part time.
There exists the growing concern of “Job
Apocalypse” where robots will take over the jobs ordinarily done by human,
there is going to be a high level of job loss for those who are mostly middle
men and those who are not prepared for the future of work. We will record a
high level of switching occupation for those who were able to subject themselves
to learning new skills. In all these, a number of concerns are also being
raised on the growing challenge to train people of the jobs of today for the
jobs of tomorrow. According to Mckinsey in his publication - Jobs lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transition in Time of Automation “75 million to 375 million
people may need to switch occupation by 2030 due to automation”.
Globalization
When the world was smaller, we had less
information to deal with than we have today through globalization. The work of
Stevenson Farmer, published in Deloitte Workplace and Mental Health Review, it
was stated that 25 years ago, we process less information in one year, than we
are currently processing in one day. Algorithms, big data are a number of key areas
that will contribute to mental health burden among workers in the future of
work. As much as technology increases the flexibility of work, it also elevates
the level of stress in workplaces. Collaboration among global teams, this
means people are working across different time zones creating intrusions on evenings
and even weekends leading to mental drain and rest time disruptions. Workers
are bound to suffer loneliness and alienation due to loss of traditional safety
nets, there will be growing need to address work-family balance and increased threat
to workers’ health. The Spanish siesta and the 35 hours French work week are
currently under threat by technology and globalization.
The growing demand on the need to work
round the clock will become so imminent, it is important to take into cognisance
that humans cannot work at same frequency and duration as robots. It is
suspected that employers will make demand on making workers stay longer hours
at work disregarding the 40 hours a weekly work schedule as recommended and advocated
by the World Health Organization (WHO). It is sad to know, when robots take
over, someone has to be their slaves.
Robotic Replacement
As many jobs go under global threats by
robots, there will also be the growing apprehension among employees on job
insecurity, it has been documented by some scholars that Robot will not stop at
taking over routine jobs rather they will keep advancing into management and
senior management positions as technology advances further. According to Martin
Ford in his book – The Rise of the Machines “The robots have not just landed in
the workplace – they are expanding skills, moving up the corporate ladder,
showing awesome productivity and retention rates and increasingly shoving aside
their human counterparts. One multi – tasker robot, from Momentum Machines can make
a gourmet of hamburger in 10 seconds and could soon replace an entire McDonalds
crew”. This rather sounds so scaring.
So, it is so obvious that the level of
job displacement through technology and robotic science could be more than we
had anticipated. Currently, traditional secretaries are being replaced by voice
mail, sales people and customer service representatives are being replaced by
websites and as artificial intelligence improves, drivers are being replaced by
electric cars that are driverless. Even dispatch riders have drones to contend
with. In the early days of publishing, Lithographers were very important in the
publishing industry but at the advent of computers that can highlight wrong
spellings and make corrections, Lithography profession became a victim of that
technological advancement. That profession today has gone into extinction just
like the draughtsmen in building industry who were displaced by auto card
designs. In a global world we live in today, you do not need to have your
materials filed and saved in your office or country, you look for where it is less
expensive using cloud technology.
Japan, in the early 80s was the major
robotic science country in the world but the government’s policy was, create technology
to do the work but human beings must be retained and ensure there are no job
lose. It is obvious this will obviously not be the global work policy in 2030 “Robot
Took My Job” might be the cry of many employees who will be affected by the
robotic apocalypse.
In today’s world, Honda, the makers of
ASIMO Robots are already waiting to deploy robots to coffee shops and eateries
to take over jobs hitherto done by humans. Yaskawa, makers of Motoman Robots
are already positioned with robots that are capable of making burgers and other
confectioneries, these all will lead to mass retrenchment (job apocalypse) in
these sets of sectors that have huge work population.
During the full automation or
robotization of workplaces, there will be increasing use of energy, organizations
will have the need to power their offices 24/7 and most times with the light on
and machines running continuously, this will further contribute to global
warming and become counterproductive towards the objective and overall goal of
climate change programs.
When management of the workplace and
work pace becomes the responsibility of robots, they will run employees out of
steam because the reverse becomes the case. In the world-of-work we had, men
were the ones driving the machines but in the future of work, machines are the
ones to drive men and this will leave us all with a very high burden of Occupational
health burden. In the world-of-work we had, there were blood on the milling
floors but the future of work will be so injurious to man and no blood will be
seen. Mental health illness is not an open wound that can be sutured or dressed
with plasters, it hurts and slowly torments these employees beyond what anyone
can imagine. This is the future of work.
I was watching a video on Youtube
channel titled “Detroit Become Human”, there was a robot called Chloe that was
being interviewed and was very articulate in answering all questions asked. But
amazingly, she gave credit to the intelligence of the humans who designed her
and one thing was important in her response, she said “they have something which
I can never have” and the interviewer said, what is that? Chloe said, a soul.
The point I want to draw from here is that it takes compassion to manage people
properly and taking into consideration their peculiarities and differences,
this is what robot may not be able to do when they invade the workplace. The
Health, Safety and Wellbeing of workers will be adversely affected.
I am a Vision Zero profiled advocate,
each time I look at the future of work, the question I ask myself is where is
Safety, Health and Wellbeing? How will these trio look like in the future of
work?
In my next publication, I will be
looking at “Vision Zero and The Future of Work”, I am sure you wouldn’t want to
miss this.
Ehi Iden
ehi@ohsm.com.ng
